Plus

Plus is still moving up to challenge the previous high. Can it or not break? Plus-CA is about 10 cents undervalue. That is why I jump into Plus-CA.

Spolymr & Hil

Got out of Spolymr due to the miscalculated Spolymr/Supermx arbitrage value. Also got out of Bjtoto-CA and TM-CC.

Hil looks stronger than I expected. So got back in.

Still riding on Ftec and Oilcorp.

BOC

Looks like a possible new uptrend is in the making. That is why I added BOC-C1.

Supermx & Spolymr II

I'm in back in Spolymr. I got only until 31 Jul to play this counter. 50% acceptance received by Supermx. Suddenly, Supermx price has broken a new high. So theoretically, Spolymr should worth about 16 cents more (based on Supermx current price of 2.66). Hopefully, this is not a one day event and Supermx can maintain the uptrend.

I'm hoping that some fund manager will play this arbitrage opportunity.

ICBC

Daily chart is shown. Looks like a possible uptrend channel is in the making. That is why I'm loading up with ICBC-C1. News report of possible 50% increase in profit. That explains the gap on the 10th of July. The gap is covered now. If can break the previous high of 5.22, then this could be a possible wave 3.

Increase turnover

Oh boy, my turnover increases substantially in the last 2 months. My brokers must be really happy. I have exited Hil but failed to exit Ngiukee-WA. Concerning Cresbldr-WA, luckily I got half out, it looks like it is back to square-one from my entry price. Still waiting for the right moment to enter (if there is one).

New counters that I bought last week are Hovid and HWGB. HWGB is another of my dark losses. This is so called fundamental share that I bought due to the recommendation of GKGoh 3 years ago. However, due to their disastrous adventure in Cambonia, the share just goes down and down. That is why I don't trust fundamental analysis that much. Since I can't and don't know how to do it properly, I just gave up doing it.

Historical Data

Bursa Malaysia counters historical data can now be accessed from Yahoo. They have from 2000 onwards. Looks like their are reestablished their support which they discontinued 4 years back. Does this indicate that we are back into the international spotlight?

Mix Management Result

Took profit on my Perisai because I bought too high from the base. So if there is any correction, I will be in a vulnerable position. Also took half profit for my Crestbld-wa because of the gap price. It has since covered it. Still looking.

I have yet again mismanage my position. A clash of long term view with short term analysis. What am I going to do with my TM-CC & Bjtoto-CC? Still trying to figure out from my journal what really happened in me.

Yesterday, I decided to buy Resorts-CC. But made the mistake of putting a limit order. I think that if you need to rush and grab for something, it is a sign of strong up move. Come to think of, most of my limit order position are just sitting or moving slowly. It is not bad, but not the swiftness that I'm looking for. Guess that sometimes I'm impatience.

Okay, I will do the following next time:

1. Limit order during consolidation of a up move.
   
2. Market order for up move in progress.

BOC

HKSE BOC got a big pushtoday. Downtrend, off course brokenlah. Daily chart is overbought. Weekly RSI is in the 60s. How much can it go? I have entered a small position in BOC-C1 because with this surge, BOC-C1 is in the money now.

Ngiukee

A break of downtrend? All weekly indicators are currently up. It's only Tuesday, so 3 more days to go for confirmation. My interest lies in the warrant. It's one of my dark losses. Don't ask me why I'm still hanging. Maybe to remind myself of ones vulnerability.

2nd Board

I cannot believe it. I didn't notice the 2nd board index because my attention was glued to the bluechips CW. The chart shows that it is rising steadily. Daily and weekly charts are of course overbought, but the monthly says that it still have energy.

Hil

I think that there is a trading potential for this counter. The daily RSI is in the 60s. Looks like making a wave 3. The weekly charts all pointing up. What is left is the monthly indicators, but they are slowly reversing to point up.

CIMB vs OSK CW

Ok...I must admit I am still learning in trading foreign CWs. I didn't have time to think about it until today concerning the effect of currency on the CW price. Oh, my normal day job keeps me busy from thinking properly. Furthermore, I didn't consider this problem until when I face 2 choices of CW: CIMB or OSK?

To win, one need to know the direction of the underlying share. Bull or bear?

The next factor to be considered is the direction of the currency.

CIMB CW's strike price are in MYR while OSK's are in HKD. There is big difference between these two. If MYR strengthens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price increases in terms of HKD. Well, if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go down! If MYR weakens against HKD, that means CIMB's CWs strike price decreases in terms of HKD, so if the underlying share price remains unchanged, that means the CIMB CW's price must go up.

Conclusion:

1. If HKD strengthens against MYR, buy CIMB CWs
2. If HKD weakens against MYR, buy OSK CWs

Anyway, the currency effect can be ignored if the movement of the underlying share price is substantial as compared to the currency movement.

ChinaLife

ChinaLife has broken the HKD30.00 barrier and closed at a new high. Daily and weekly indicators are overbought. Big surge today. Chlife-C1 may be starting to form an uptrend. I have taken an initial position on Chlife-C1 today.

ICBC

Look at HK shares, ramming every records. Too bad I only keep track of Petroch.

Well, my next target is ICBC. It looks like the downtrend has been broken and the gap price has been closed.

I wanted to buy ICBC-C1 since it has given me a buy signal. But as ICBC-C3 is listed today and it is trading a 1 cent lower, I bought it instead as I think that it is mispriced by the market. Anyhow, I'm still looking for the formula to calculate the theorectical price of a warrant.

Latest fashion in town

The latest fashion in town is the Hong Kong listed CW.

I know one can get free historical data from Yahoo. But to do it manually is too tedious. So I discover this tool called Yahoo Historical Quotes Downloader. Oh...i know of this tool long time ago. The first version that I used was a Java version that requires one to type the command in DOS prompt. Not user friendly at all. That's how my friend got the KLSE data from Yahoo before they discontinue the services. The next version that I tried comes with a GUI, unfortunately, it didn't work. I don't know why. But the latest version works almost perfectly. The free version allows you to download only 100 tickers at one time. So for HKEx, just repeat it a few times to get the complete database.

For daily updates, just go to eoddata to get it free.

So, to do TA on HK shares, get the ticker list from eoddata. Use the ticker list to download the historical data from Yahoo. Their data starts from year 2000. So its sufficient to do TA.

Not only that, you can also get SGX daily shares data. Okay, only one CW from SGX. Maybe it there will be more.

Petroch

I think I made a mistake of assuming that Petroch-C1 and Petroch-C3 should trade at the same premium. I forgot to take into account the expiration date of these CWs. Because of this flawed assumption, I have changed from Petroch-C1 to Petroch-C3 due to the perceived mispriced of the CW. Currently, Petroch-C3 is lagging the movement of Petroch-C1.

Perisai

Perisai looks interesting. Depending on how you draw the downtrend line (weekly chart above), you could interpret it as the downtrend line has been broken or maybe not. A look at the RSI shows that the weekly downtrend RSI has been broken (no ambiguity here). Furthermore, the RSI value is in the 60s. I interpret this as bullish development. Most probably the 27 months of consolidation is over.


The daily chart shows that it is overbought but the RSI has been able to make a higher high. Possible pullback should be expected as indicated by the long shadow candle.

Sliding Temporary Halted?

The KLCI technicals is bad. Unless some miracle happens, it will take a few months to recover to the upside (if it happens). It was a busy week for me, I cut almost all my CWs. Only left TM-CC, AMMB-CA and BJToto-CA. For BJToto-CA, I'm betting that the support at around 5.10 should hold. If the market continues to slid, even good shares will also go down. My technical readings also spell trouble for my so called fundamental counters: Notion, Wellcal and Masteel. These counters looks like sinking due to gravity. All are cleared for now. If it ain't going up, why keep and expose yourself to market risk? Cash is king. Anyhow, will reenter if the condition changes (hopefully not sudden change as I will definitely not able to catch the signal if it is too fast.)

All is not lost yet. Ftec seems to be inching 1.5 cents per week. Oilcorp pula looks like go to break to the upside again. So, you see, I'm not selling all out yet.....

High percentage of failure

Looks like for every 2 stocks that I choose, 1 will not work out. Very high rate of failure, huh?

All my finance play not working out. I cannot imagine how did I missed out the property play. Maybe I was paying to much energy on L&G to get out from it. Talking about L&G, I missed the boat, I tried to get in last week but took the unusual way of using limit order. Usually I use market order. Most probably the past still haunts me. What play will be next?

Market ding dong up and down. I think I will leave the bluechips CW for now. The technicals are getting worse. US is not looking good. A double top? Not a good time for election if the market continue behaving like this. The best is maybe the year-end window dressing.

Looking for Oppurtunities

The following is my basic method of looking for trading opportunities using Metastock. Before I continue, I would like to thank the following person for making this possible:
1. SML for providing the Metastock update script and taking the effort to get the data from Yahoo (when it was still available).
2. Swingtrader for teaching me how to write the filter formula.

Okai, lets go to the steps:
1. Set up Metastock filter rules. Mine look like this:
a. Monthly timeframe scan
Mov(CLOSE,3,E) > Mov(CLOSE,7,E) AND MACD() > Mov(MACD(),9,E)

b. Weekly timeframe scan
Mov(CLOSE,3,E) > Mov(CLOSE,7,E) AND Mov(CLOSE,7,E) > Mov(CLOSE,20,E) AND MACD() > Mov(MACD(),9,E)

c. Daily timeframe scan
Mov(CLOSE,3,E) > Mov(CLOSE,7,E) AND Mov(CLOSE,7,E) > Mov(CLOSE,20,E) AND Mov(CLOSE,20,E) > Mov(CLOSE,30,E) AND MACD() > Mov(MACD(),9,E)

2. Copy the result

3. Compare the result with the previous day result

4. Find the differences

5. The differences represents possible trading oppurtunity

Example for CWs
18-Jun-07: BURSA DIGI MPLANT PROTON
19-Jun-07: BJTOTO BURSA DIGI MPLANT PLUS PROTON RHBCAP TM
So on 20 Jun, one may consider trading in BJToto, Plus, RHBCap or TM. This depends on the detail analysis of the stock.

TA vs FA

Technical Analysis vs Fundamental Analysis. Which is better? As I said before, use a method that suits your personality.

Why I use TA instead of FA?

Well, when I first started investing, actually I tried to use FA. First I rely on the FA reports from brokerage houses, then I tried doing it myself. Bought books on how to do that. But the problem is:

1. I have limited time, can you do an analysis on 1300 counters in BM?
2. One cannot rely doing FA from the desk only (i.e. read yearly account statement), you need to talk to the management, competitors etc. Will the management entertain an unknown?
3. Accounting is not my field of expertise. I thought it was debit/credit (as I learned in my Perdagangan class in Form 1-3). But things can get really creative!
   
4. Brokerage houses have access to the management, but they do not always report it objectively. They tend to give a more rosy picture for everything (i.e buys vs sells are a ratio of multiple times).
5. I'm only limited to Malaysian market.

So I switched to TA. TA works if you are discipline and knows the weaknesses. What I have learned from TA:

1. There is no silver bullet. Don't rely only on one indicator. You need to combine them.
2. Use simple indicators because everything are derived from price and volume.
   
3. Don't be short sighted, always look at the bigger picture no matter which time frame you are trading in.
4. Interpretation is an art, you need experience for that. So don't expect quick result in the early stages.

The advantages of using TA is:

1. Your trading is not only limited to Malaysia, humans behave the same all around the world, so your TA technique works in every market.
2. You can trade stock, commodity and currency using TA.
3. Saves you time as TA programs can scan through everything in a few minutes.

That summarizes my opinion about TA vs FA.

PBBank

Is PBBank coming? The first chart is PBBank-01 while the second is PBBank. PBBank chart is not pretty as it shows weekly bearish divergence and the MACD is going into negative zone. However, at look at PBBank-01 which only the foreigners can buy tells a different story. The weekly RSI bearish divergence has been broken (as of Thursday) and the MACD is going back into positive zone. So, will PBBank follow?

Based on this argument, PBBank could follow PBBank-01, I have taken a tiny position in PBBank-CC as it has the longest lifetime (premium and gearing are all almost the same for the 3 CWs: CA/CB/CC). Hopefully this works out.

Spolymr & BJToto

Rebalancing my portfolio. Sold Spolymr as it looks about at the right value based on current Supermx price. I don't want to hold odd lots as happened to my GHLSys.

Took a quick profit on BJToto as I'm a little bit concern with today's candle. Furthermore, I bought at a level where the proper stop was very far from my entry price, i.e. no balls to hang on :p

Telekom is overbought now. Can it break 11.10????

Watch out on Petroch-C3 tomorrow. Those that have subscribe to the CW are technically 70% richer now (based on the given premium for Petroch-C1).

Petroch

I just realized that Petroch is also listed in the NYSE as PTR. Anyway, it has broken new high in HK and NY. Petroch-C1 chart shows that a possible uptrend in the making. That's why I have added another position. Anyhow, just found out the "reason" for the surge. So, my oil play has also become a China play.

All time frame chart for Petroch is at the overbought position now.

TM

Aiyo...left and right buy signal generated. Don't have that much money to buy and to blog during market hours.

Okay, why did I buy TM-CC:
1. Buy signal generated yesterday.
2. All daily indicators positive.
3. Monthly indicators still up.

Risk:
1. Weekly indicators improving but still mix.

My conclusion:
1. Possibly challenging 11.10 again
2. Due to weekly chart intepretation, not sure yet whether it have the power to break 11.10

Possibly a quick trade since TM-CC has almost zero time value with a gearing of 13x (based on OSK 19 June table).

Don't Become A Follower

Many people likes to follow a guru. I just got a message to simply follows Sams recommendation.

Guys/gals, don't you get it? It's not just about winning. It's winning with your capability. Sams himself says his objective is to teach FA. What have you learned from him? He is going to stop blogging after Feb 2008 (as he says it). So, if you don't learn anything, what will you do after that? Can you buy/sell with your own decision?

He likes to boost the superiority of FA. For me, no matter it is a black cat or white cat, as long as the cat can catch mice, then it is a good cat. There is no such thing as FA better then TA or vice versa. It's about something that suits your personality.

Some people uses NA: News Analysis, to see how market reacts to news to buy/sell. Others used SA: Sentiment Analysis.

So there are many techniques, be a master of one technique. Be the master yourself.

BJToto & TM

Hmmm....cut loss in BJToto last week but reenter back again! Got fooled. Finally the breakout came, so fast, so furious, without me in it. How much can it go? Just taking a small position with very tight stop. I was not able to buy yesterday because of whole day involve in a meeting.

TM gave me a buy signal yesterday. So bought TM-CC. Almost zero time value with very high gearing. In essence, high risk, high gain. The reverse is also true.

Got the feeling that the market will go above 1400 and beyond now because the bullish counter (based on my definition) increases in an orderly number.

Crude Oil

My data for crude oil is limited. So all readings is based only on weekly chart.

After consolidating between 60 and 68 region, it seems that it has broken to the upside and ready to rechallenge the previous high of 80.

What does this means? Oil & gas counter should get more fuel to rally. Consumers will most probably suffer. Steep correction in CPO may find support. That's all I can think of.

Not Stock Related

Life is not all about stock market.

An interest article from Tun Hanif Omar appears in The Star today. This got me googled for the source. Damn, as good as Tom Clancy.

FTEC

Everyday high volume. What's up?

Bought it because:
1. All daily indicator goes up.
2. Weekly chart may indicate the end of consolidation.
3. Monthly chart is up.

Risk:
1. Weekly MACD on the verge of going into negative. So everything may also crash.

PetroChina

Okie, I am in the Petroch-C1. My justification:
1. Weekly RSI in 60s, usually will go to the 70s before peaking.
2. All weekly indicators are up.
3. Daily Stochastic just turn up again.

Risk:
1. May cover gap at 9.00 HKD

AMMB, KLK, Kretam, BJtoto

The first loss is the best loss! Cut KLK-CC and BJToto-CA, Take profit on Kretam-WA. Reenter AMMB-CA. Is plantation play over?

I don't understand, counters that I cut quickly will rebound up as quick. Counters that I delayed cutting, will continue going down. This makes my actions inconsistent. Must be more discipline. One way is for me to aware of my emotion. If I have a "hope" for a rebound, that means really bad.

Oilcorp

I don't have any exposure to oil&gas play. Samudra was a lost oppurtunity.

Technically, I think Oilcorp may have good oppurtunity. If you read Samgoss blog, he has been promoting it for the past 2 weeks. I can't just follow blindly, correct? So need to have my own "reasons" :p


My justification for buying:
1. Daily stochastic swinging to the upper region.
2. Daily RSI downtrend broken, this means good chance for the price downtrend to be broken too.
3. Daily MACD going negative positive.

The reading from weekly chart is mix, generally it shows uptrend with consolidation. Anyway, if all daily indicators point up, maybe a good play for a swing to .....(can't put a price target because it will skew my analysis later)

This will be my third play with this counter, 1 good, 1 ok. How about this?

CW not working out

Mine CWs play is not working out. KLCI is still trap in short term consolidation. Thus, my CWs not moving. Rotational play moves to 3rd liners, the movement is fast and my filter is only designed to catch longterm trend that moves slowly. So I don't get to anticipate their moves. Since long term trend is getting flat, I am thinking of changing my filter parameters. Still looking into this.

Standarized the foreign CW parameters?

What the f...? The strike price for OSK CWs for foreign share are in HKD. The strike price for CIMB CWs for foreign shares are in MYR. Oh....this makes my computation so much harder!

Why can't there be a standard? This just brings confusion especially when one have to take into account the foreign exchange. If you don't look careful, you sure rugi.

Look at OSK CW Pricing table (11 Jun 2007 price). Even they are confuse. -44% premium for HSBC-C1 and 137.77% premium for Singtel-C1.

Shouldn't the basic parameters for foreign CWs be standardize?

ChinaMobile, ICBC, PetroChina CWs

For two days in a row the CW for HK listed shares are in the top-10 volume. Since it is only 2 days of data, I am unable to make any analysis on the CWs. Will wait longer before deciding whether to trade or not. Anyhow, this is my analysis on the underlying shares.
PetroChina: In uptrend. Best bet at the moment.

ICBC: Still going down. Avoid!
ChinaMobile: Consolidation. Wait.

Bjtoto, MISC, KLK, Kretam, Ranhill, Commerz

Mix result for this week. Bjtoto and MISC refuse to break new high. Still waiting. KLK makes another attempt, so my KLK-CC is above water now. Kretam makes a surprise move today. Anymore to go? I got out of Ranhill as I have interpreted the price/volume action will lead to consolidation. I don't want to sit it out. Anyhow, I got back in Commerz-CC as Commerz looks strong indeed.

Looks like the market has decoupled from external events. The number of bullish counters based on my definition keeps increasing since 31 May. Is everyone feeling happy because Abdullah is getting married? Happiness means people are more willing spend, so more buying to come?

HK Call Warrant

This is not as easy as I think. Can't compute mentally the market value of the call warrants as I need to take into consideration the exchange rate. The next problem will be having access to the price of the underlying shares itself.

BTW, Shanghai corrected, but a no even in the rest of the world. So, if everyone is expecting it to happen, it is a no surprise. A no surprise will not "move" the market. It got to be something unexpected to crash our market.....

MISC

If one ignore the spikes, MISC should probably has broken it's all time high. The interesting thing is that MISC-CB is trading at very low premium with a gearing of 10x. The reward will be tremendous if MISC keeps moving up. Of course, the reverse will be true.

Transmile Anyone?

Aiyoh, I don't understand why people will buy Transmile at this time? Look at the chart, very long candles. This represents emotional buy/sell. Anything can happen. There is no certainty. As a trader/investor, one need certainty. If you are not certain, do you dare to take the bet? Yes, nothing is 100% certain, but at least when the odds are in our favor, then oklor.

There are many counters that are still going up. Why not take a bet on them? Why bet on something that is diving down? What is the fare value? Every fare value that was given by an analyst can be consider just a random point. Nobody knows what the market will pay for it. Don't catch a falling knife. Rebound play is just not worth the risk!

KLK

Consolidation over for KLK? Highest gearing for KLK-CC as compared to KLK-CA and KLK-CB. All are in the money.

BJToto

Every where new high. How about KLCI? Still afraid of China crashing?

Looking at BJToto chart, it has closed at the 4 years old time high. Many sellers are waiting at around this region. So, is it going to break to 5.00 and above? Daily charts indicate that there is a good chance. So is it worth to take a bet at the covered warrant? It is still below the striking price but with a gearing of 14x and only 8 cents away.....Hope that it don't turn out like the bet I took with AMMB.

No Volatility

The magic hand should not artificially support the market at the last minute. If it don't drop, it can't go up. No volatility, no trading. Volume is terribly low. If you wanna get out, tough luck as no buyers are willing to take it from you. Sideways market is a terrible time to play the warrants. You will just be killed by time decay.

I think it is time to introduce call and put in Malaysia. This will definitely make the market more lively. Why nobody is taking this path?

Boiling slowly

Hard to play. The market refuse to give you the profit. Loss in AMMB-CA, breakeven in Mems, took some profit from Masteel.

The market seems to be slowly sinking. Sometimes I'm torn between fundamental and technical. For instance Notion, making money, but appreciating MYR is eating into its profit. The stock sinking slowly. Hold on or sell?

It is easy to play when a stock has no fundamental. When the technical says sells, it is a sell. No more second guessing.

Show Face

What a show, very long shadow candle. A possible sign of short term reversal.

Next week, big guns going to Singapore to talk to big fund managers. So, we should have a rally next week. You can't sell if it is red, correct? The question is: If there is a push, will the push be sustained?

KLCI & Kretam

Everyone knows the market will correct but not when. But one old man repeats what everyone has been saying, the market suddenly realize that it is time to correct.

A look at the KLCI weekly chart shows that it is drifting lower with low volume. Nobody dares to buy, so easy to push it down. Lets see whether 1328 can be supported. If not, look for the index to go to 1200 to 1250.

Even though the general market is bad, some counters can still defy gravity. Ranhill went up the hill too fast too much. I manage to release a little bit. Now waiting for it to settle down. If got the chance, I will reload it. But first must see what are the long term players going to do with this counter.

Today, everyone is playing THGroup. Aiyoh, I shall leave this counter alone. Some counters always not kind to me. Always loose. THGroup is one of them.

AMMB very volatile. Up and down. Looks like AMMB-CA is not working out.

Looking at the CPO chart, looks like it is still going up. Will this mean plantation counters going to be played again? Will they defy the general market? I still have one plantation counter in my portfolio. Same case like L&G, trap until now. Never manage to sell when it goes up. The counter is Kretam-WA. 1 year 6 months to go. A look at Kretam weekly chart shows that the uptrend is still intact. This week, it gave a buy signal but with a gap up after announcing good result. The daily RSI indicates that it should break the short term resistance. If it can do that, I think my Kretam-WA can go up a little bit more. I added some Kretam-WA today as I though that Kretam will close up higher after 2 days of consolidation. Unfortunately, not really to my expectation. Anyhow, let's see whether it works out or not.

Fun to be a Hedge Fund Manager

This is the thing that keeps my dream burning :p

Worth A Lot, but Are Hedge Funds Worth It?

Supermx & Spolymr

The story is like this. Supermx is proposing to privatize Spolymr. Some genius comes out with a complex formula for the exchange of Spolymr shares into Supermx + some cash.

The whole deal values Spolymr at RM1.10 where it is assume that Supermx is valued at RM2.50.Supermx gives a buy signal a few days ago. Looks like it got the potential to break the previous high of 2.58. Unfortunately, Spolymr is not moving much (yet?). Why? I don't know. Anyhow, Spolymr also gives a buy signal now.

This is like a warrant play, for every 1 cents increase in Supermx, Spolymr should increase proportionally. The idea is to ride on the bullishness of Supermx. But must sell before the whole deal is complete. If not, one will end up with odd lots of Supermx.

That is why I added another position on Spolymr. I hope that this play will work out.

Overseas Structured Warrant

OSK is introducing structured warrant from Hong Kong. Wow, now I can diversified a little bit. HKEx stock codes can be found here. There is a link to the stock price too. I have been collecting HKEx data since 2005 from eoddata.com. Not very complete as I need at least 5 years for a thorough analysis, but sufficient enough to play for short term. Any reader knows where I can get free historical data for this exchange beside the one I mentioned?

The waiting continues...

Everyone is waiting for the correction. The trillion yuan question is when? Is today's brief correction a correction?

Stock market is a play among the suckers. Who will be the last sucker? How many million suckers are there in a population of 1.3 billion?

Will the market crash when the Olympic is only a year away? Do you want to see a gloomy Olympic?

If you expect it to correct severely, what will you do when the time arrives? Buy, sell or wait & see?

Many possible scenarios. It's best to rehearse this in your mind so that you are prepared for it. Don't react but act when it comes.

AMMB

Still trying to break the record high of 4.22. Strong buying by some big fund during the day but it disappeared suddenly towards the close. The weekly MACD bearish divergence may have been broken but this can only be confirmed if the price closes above 4.22.

I took another position in AMMB-CA hoping that the selling force at 4.22 will dissipate by the end of this week.

Sideways

Looks like my speculation that market will be pushed higher due to good 1Q result is wrong. Nobody is willing to push the price higher as their are very smart now. No one wants to become the greater fool. Everyone is waiting for China market to crash so that they may buy at a more attractive price.

Volume continue to shrink. Let's wait until after the final of the Champions League. Maybe market will come alive after that just like last year.

China Money

Pick up this story from MarketWatch.com

"...the China Banking Regulatory Commission, in an attempt to cool its overheated stock market, had ruled that Chinese banks "can now invest as much as 50 percent of funds in overseas stock markets."

Where will the money go?

Property, Plantation, Mesdaq

Property: A troubling look. A bearish reversal candle?
Plantation: Looks toppish. No idea how to interpret.
Mesdaq: Still going down. Will be staying away from Mesdaq counters.

KLCI, Finance, Construction

KLCI: Possible weekly bearish divergent. No power liao. Low selling volume. Are we going to sink slowly? 1300 must be supported. If not, things will get ugly.
Finance: Still going up. No sign of trouble yet but volume is also strinking.

Construction: A possible doji? Weekly MACD going into negative territory.

Luck

I bought Samudra during the last buy signal and got trap for a long time (1 month without moving is consider long by my standard). Just like Ranhill, no luck. You thought that the setup was perfect, then it falls back and but it refuse to hit your stop. You wait and wait and wait while it gives you one after other false buy/sell signal. Oscillating here and there. Then you decided to sell, and this time the share zoom up!

So sometimes one need luck.

AMMB & Samudra

Wrong analysis on Commerz. Or is it my stop was too tight? Another missed opportunity.

I'm in AMMB-CA now. The rational is AMMB may break old high of 4.22. Daily chart all turns up. Long term is still in uptrend. Hopefully, 0.155 was the bottom of AMMB-CA.

The bulls are pushing Samudra again. Another false rally? Luck is not with me for this counter.

Volume is getting lower each day. Time to read books to improve oneself.

Ranhill

I bought this counter when it broke the downtrend channel. Unfortunately, it goes into correction mode afterwards. Still holding until today. In fact, I added another position hoping that this time the buy signal will propel it higher. If can close above 1.39, then should see more action.

Commerz, TM & L&G

Got stop out with Commerz-CC & TM-CC. Commerz got sell down even good result. Not a good sign. For L&G, I decided to sell all. Trap for 4 years, story ends today. Just manage to earn a little bit.

Commerz

Wah lau eh. Look at Commerz latest result. Superb. I don't know much about accounting, so not sure what is inside. Anyway, I think that Commerz price will overtake Maybank soon. Does this means that Commerz is going to replace Maybank as the leader in the banking industry?

Tips

Just to make it clear, I'm no fan of Dali or Sam. It feels funny these bloggers can have fans like singers or actors. I wish I have a large fan based, then ever time I disclose my buying, the price will jump up to give me a comfortable margin. Unfortunately, every time I buy and disclose it, the price goes down some more :p

Anyway, lets talk about tips. I do go through other blogs to see the sentiments of other traders/investors. Hmm...seems like the number of tips are more each day. Many M&A tips. I'm not sure how many times one can win on tip but my experience was terrible. Looking at these tips, I think market will get hotter as the main players are spreading news to entice the crowd to buy. When the tip fever goes sky high with sky high volume, then one should consider to sell. Well I think that after May, I do not see any so call positive "news" to push up the market anymore. By the way, I have a good history of missing most of the rally, so maybe I'm wrong.

New High...but where are the crowds?

KLCI index hit new high. But the volume is low. Remisiers are complaining. Tactician is not impress. Why like this?

Okay, this is my theory.

You see, the unit trust industry in Malaysia has seen strong growth. How much money was manage by the industry in 1994 and now? I don't have the figure but it is surely manifold.

Now, due to the risk management policy, these unit trust must invest in so called companies with fundamentals. There are not hedge fund. So that is why you see blue chips and fundamental companies go up. You can't expect losing money companies to go up also. That is why the 3rd and lower liners are still laying like dead fish. Furthermore, the most recent February sell down really spook the retailers. Anyway, do you still remember while we were at 950, the push was done with low volume and everyone was also complaining.

So, more money are chasing quality stock and less money are left to play speculative ones.

If I look at the chart, I will be cautious but will still buy if a stock have good setup. From my uptrend lists, I detect that the lower liners are starting to move now. So, most probably we shall see some play on lower liners if the blues can just hang on to their gain.

For me, I'm still looking to play other covered warrants. My filter gives me the following uptrend stock with covered warrant:
AirAsia, AMMB, Astro, Bursa, Commerz, Digi, Maxis, Misc, Mplant, PBBank, Plus, TM, YTL

I'm in Commerz and TM. Still looking for the perfect setup to enter the rest.

Sell in May and....?

Everyone is waiting for the correction. Fear of China meltdown is in everyone's mind. Well, the truth is, when everyone is anticipating it, do you think will it happen? The market is always cruel to the market participants. It will always catch us with our pants down. I think that all short term players have already left the market in anticipation of correction. Only long term players left. If these long term players can push some more, sure it will draw back the short term players.

This time should be different, no football to distract our attention (hurray to AC Milan!). Foreign funds are back. Ringgit is appreciating. Election is coming. Furthermore, it is the reporting season in May. Good earnings will propel us further. The only thing that can halt this rally is something not in our mind. Not China, not carry trade, not subprime. If there is any sell down due to these, it should not be severe because they are old news liao. There must be something new to scare the shit out of us. That we will not know until...

Commerz

Trading at all time high. Will it go higher?

There are 3 CWs that are available. Commerz-CA, Commerz-CB and Commerz-CC. Commerz-CA gearing is low. So out. Between Commerz-CB and Commerz-CC, I choose Commerz-CC because of it's much better daily technical indicators. A possible uptrend in formation. The premium is reasonable as the expiration date is in October. Thus, I took an initial half position and will add if the indicators will close positively for the week.

Spolymr

This company will be eaten by Supermx. The price is RM1.10. Maybe I can earn a few percentage since the market is not so good, at least the price will not drop. Anyway, Supermx is running up the hill. Thus, I took a tiny position in this counter.

BTW, I sold out my KLK-CC as I have detected a bearish divergence in the daily chart for KLK. The profit is so so nia. Hmm...looks like the blues are stalling, my TM is not working well. Will need to make a decision soon.

3pm Selling

Do you notice that selling pressure usually starts to emerge from 3pm and usually lasted about 1 to 1.5 hours? I believe there are 2 reasons for this:
1. Force selling by brokers because someone have forgotten/refused to pay for the shares purchased.
2. Unwinding of position by day traders.

So, what can we do with this fact? I think this depends on your comfortableness. One can buy if the trend is up (if you have the confidence that your analysis is correct). Or one can wait after the selling pressure has subsided for a clearer picture (if you are not so confident of your analysis).

One thing for sure, if you bought in the morning and the price starting to slip in the afternoon, don't get panic (yet), go away and have a cup of tea (since it is tea time) and come back before the market close to see what has happened.

Cresbld & Cresbld-WA

This one is recommended by Sam. Technically, long term charts are pointing upwards. The warrant looks interesting because the expiry date is in 2013. I have taken a small position and will add when the market improves.

2 Years of Blogging

Wau, time flies. It's already 2 years since my first posting on March 19, 2005. I didn't even now whether anybody is reading this blog until I put a stat counter into it today. I was amazed at the number of different IPs coming to this blog. I know my blog is nothing as compare to Moola, Dali, Sam or Ichi. But I'm still amaze at the hit I get.

I think that I'm on of the oldest surviving stock market blog in Malaysia :D. Most of the blogs don't survive long. Well, maybe I should to do some spring cleaning on those inactive blog links.

I'm not sure how long will this blog survive but I shall try to keep it up as long as I'm still trading stocks.

CIMB & Bursa Warrant Portal

Thanks to thethinker, yup, CIMB warrant portals does not work if the browser is Firefox.

BTW, a check with Bursa Malaysia warrant listing shows that the "complimentary period" message is no more! I checked the file creation date and it is 1 day after I posted my blog! Shit, is someone from Bursa is monitoring this blog?! With the current attempt to crackdown on bloggers, I must be careful. One can't trade if the authority harasses you.

TM

Buy signal was generated a few days ago. But my filter didn't catch it until yesterday (must be the computation of precision point problem). All charts are pointing upwards. I will bet on TM-CC. Good gearing even though time is a little bit short. Another choice would be TM-CA. Both are in the money. No signals yet from the CW. With a drop of 35 points, do you dare to take the bet?

Health for Trading

Weekend spent with diarrhea, I still fell terrible. No appetite to eat, slight headache and fever and little bit short of breath. Health is very important, without good health, one cannot think properly. When one cannot think properly, one cannot see the market properly, this is bad for ones account.

When I recover from this, I will make sure that I will spend more time exercising.

Anyway, my KLK-CC finally moves above my purchase price. Hopefully it will move more. L&G is quite volatile, large swing each day. Paperly, I am even with this counter. Just hanging on as the long term chart is quite promising.

Kuala Lumpur Kepong (KLK)

Why expensive stocks keeps getting more expensive? Digi @ RM19, IOI @ RM23, Genting @ RM40?

Because the big boys are buying it. The foreigners cannot be bother with cheap shares because they got too much money. So we must play the big boys share. But 1 lot of these will cost us a fortune (for ikan bilis player like me). The solution is to go for the CWs.


KLK caught my attention. Monthly chart still pointing upwards. With bullish CPO, how high can it go? I got 3 choices, -CA, -CB, -CC. I don't like 10 to 1 ratio CW, so -CB is out. Comparing -CA and -CC, I choose -CC because the gearing is higher even though the expiration date is shorter by 2 months. Actually, I wanted to buy this earlier but forgot to monitor. A look at -CC chart shows that an uptrend has been established. After consolidating at around 0.40, looks like it is moving again. Let's see how far can KLK goes.

Warrant Info

Basically, I know of 3 websites where one can find the information concerning the warrants traded in Bursa Malaysia.

1. CIMB Warrants Portal
This site is practically useless. I cannot imagine Nazir dare to launch it. The draw chart doesn't work. All top menu links never works. No messages to tell me I must log on to use the functionality. Maybe it is only for CIMB customers. No account, no go.

2. OSK CW Table
This is a good list of CW traded. But be careful, sometimes the info could be wrong, i.e. exercise ratio (comes and go). The drawback is the size of the file. It's a .bmp file named in .jpg extension. The actual size of the file is a whooping 2.8MB! Wah-lau-eh, didn't someone tell the person in-charge to compress it properly? For other warrant prices, sorry lar...got to be an OSK customer only can access.

3. Bursa Malaysia
Finally Bursa has a list of warrant traded. A little bit of improvement.The only thing is that it is only updated once a month. Yusli, make it more sophisticated-lah. MSC every where, I'm sure it can be more canggih. BTW, if you click on March listing, you will see this embarrassing message:

No money to buy? Google-lah for a free pdf creator.

KLCI @ 2000?

The gaps refused to be closed. KLCI is moving up higher each day and approaching the 70s region.

Some analyst give a target of 1400 for this year

Well, looking at the monthly chart, this is my outrageous interpretation.

Warning: You are reminded that the eye will see what the mind wants to see. I'm not a professional analyst. This is just an amateur attempt to pass some time.

So looking at the chart, I see a symmetrical triangle formation. The breakout from this triangle occurs about 2/3 from the centre of the triangle. According to the triangle theory, this is a strong break. However, due to rumours, Yen-carry trade and subprime fear, we can see that the index tested the upper resistance/support of the triangle and bounced from it. So the break is valid.

Now, if I consider the start of this triangle which is the low of 300, draw a line to upper resistance of 1200, gives a total difference of 900. According to triangle theory again, the upside projection when the triangle is broken is 1100 + 900 = 2000!

That's it, my prediction for the next 6-18 months, the KLCI value is 2000. When? I don't know. If it didn't reach 2000 in a year or two, nobody will curse me because most of you will have forgotten. Even I would have forgotten :p But if it reaches, maybe someone will remember and think that I'm Bursa God :D.

P.S. If the foreigner keeps pushing due to the appreciation of the Ringgit, this may come true after all.

Awards & Dream

I'm thinking, every year, awards are giving to the best stock analyst, best unit trust, best return...best of everthing etc. It's good to celebrate when ones call turns out to be making money. But why there are no awards given for worst call, worst unit trust, worst return etc?

Are the industry hoping that everyone will forget about their bad calls and sweep it under the carpet? If we know who is the best, we should have the right to know who is the worst, right?

Aha....I think the reason is because the brokerage/stock market industry wants to sell us a dream. An illusion that this is the place to make money. But with equal number of bad apples going around, it is not easy. But nobody is telling you. Either you are the best, or you perish in this world. I wonder who are the people that consistently makes money.

Meanwhile, I'm still holding on to my dream.